Marta San Román (AFEC): "The technical challenge facing the heat pump is to improve performance.”

What will be the major challenges for heat pumps in 2024?

Many of the challenges will be a continuation of some that have already started or will start in the remaining months of 2023. We are facing significant regulatory changes. These will define the new boundaries for the heat pump sector. The Ecodesign directive is currently being reviewed to lower the environmental impact of heat pumps and HVAC equipment throughout their entire life cycle, including energy consumption during use.

A revised version of the Energy Performance of Buildings Directive (EPBD) is currently being evaluated. This update will mandate that all EU buildings achieve net-zero emissions (i.e., all energy consumption produces zero emissions) by 2050. Heat pump technology will have a significant impact on the EPBD due to its status as one of the most effective on-site renewable energy options. It can be combined with solar and energy storage systems, and every EU country must establish a roadmap with precise targets for the deployment of heat pumps in buildings. A tentative political agreement is expected in the fourth quarter of 2023, with potential for publication in the first quarter of 2024 and implementation in 2026.

What is the status of the refrigerant problem?

No agreement was reached within the European Union in July regarding a definitive text for the revision of the EU Regulation 517/2014 on fluorinated greenhouse gases (FGas). However, such an agreement may still be reached whilst Spain holds the presidency of the Council of the European Union. The adopted proposal may result in greater use of A3 (highly flammable) classified refrigerants in certain equipment categories, thus impacting industrial safety and technical regulations. These codes may require re-evaluation, clarification, and dissemination. 

From a human resources and training perspective, a significant challenge is the scarcity of skilled technical personnel and lack of generational succession. Additionally, heat pump installers require extensive skills and expertise. Besides being knowledgeable in refrigeration engineering, they need proficiency in hydraulics, electricity, and connectivity for the hybridisation of different technologies.

What are the technological and environmental challenges?

The technical challenge will be to enhance performance, particularly under harsh temperature conditions, facilitate advancements in Artificial Intelligence (AI), implement regulatory measures for improved asset management and maintenance of thermal installations, and attain elevated temperatures in industrial heat pumps. To achieve this, it will be necessary to expand and adjust the electricity grid to meet demand and its peaks.

The challenge of energy rehabilitation in existing buildings presents a social and environmental concern, as their air conditioning and SHW production systems require renewal. To accelerate heat pump adoption, collaboration amongst agents such as manufacturers, specifiers, architects, engineers, property administrators, associations, and installation and maintenance companies is necessary.

How will manufacturers adapt to all these challenges?

Heat pump manufacturers are well-versed in adapting to new and familiar challenges. Investment is being made to expand the industrial presence, ensuring sufficient capacity to meet the growing demand for heat pumps anticipated in European plans.

Our R&D departments are devoted to creating new models, features and solutions that reduce the carbon footprint across the entire life cycle while promoting a comprehensive approach that incorporates various technologies to enhance energy efficiency.

We collaborate closely with our partners in the European Heat Pump Association (EHPA) to communicate to the EU our requirements and unique perspective on Spain's diverse climate and residential structures, distinct from those of northern Europe. Our objectives include advancing the EU Heat Pump Accelerator, contributing to the European Product Registry for Energy Labelling (EPREL) with data on existing heat pump models, among others.

At a local level, we offer guidance to the Public Bodies, such as the Ministry of Ecological Transition and Demographic Challenges (Institute for Energy Diversification and Saving - IDAE - and Spain’s Office for Climate Change - OECC) and Ministry of Industry, Trade and Tourism, on topics such as energy refurbishment, industrial safety, and preparing heat pump documentation for Energy Performance Certificates (EPC), which will increase financing for actions with this technology. We also work with UNE (Spanish Standardisation Body) to ensure regulatory compliance and market surveillance, and with CEIS testing, innovation and services centre to support the professionalisation of the industry.

Additionally, we partner with firms, including Endesa and Iberdrola, to encourage industrialisation and technological innovations within the heat pump market. We aim to educate individuals on the potential employment opportunities available in this sector. Manufacturers place significant emphasis on non-formal training to address the skill gaps in the professional channel and entice new talent to the industry.

And we must not forget communication: AFEC, through the EU Heat Pump Accelerator, has established itself as the foremost advocate for aerothermal and geothermal energy promotion, with the backing of 30 companies after eight years. The plan's initiatives raise awareness of this technology's applications, benefits, and long-term European projection. They expand expert networks, reach various societal levels, and consolidate the technology's essential role in the roadmap to decarbonise thermal installations in buildings.

How crucial is having a comprehensive grasp of the heat pump market?

Understanding the heat pump market is crucial for both Spanish and European public administrations to accurately assess the size and effects of legislative projects, aid programmes, and other initiatives.

At AFEC, we place significant emphasis on this matter. That's why we devote considerable resources to our market statistics, which have established a reputation for being objective, independent, rigorous, and dependable over more than 15 years. The sector is becoming increasingly representative as the number of active players continues to rise. We also wish to emphasise the significance of teamwork, the necessity of uniting our efforts, and the media's value in amplifying our voices. Thank you very much.